[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 30 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 1 09:31:32 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 April. Very
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 01-03 May. Currently, the visible disc has three numbered
regions, 2760 to 2762. Sunspots were also observed in a fourth
region which is currently at N29E20. No returning regions are
expected. No Earth-bound CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO and STEREO images. During UT day 30 April, the solar wind
speed has decreased from 310 km/s to 270 km/s, currently near
280 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 2-5 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) was between -2 and +2 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly near its background
values for the next three UT days, 01-03 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 0 10000000
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 0 10000001
Townsville 1 11000001
Learmonth 1 11010000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 00000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 22110000
Mawson 4 41110000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 7 Quiet
02 May 7 Quiet
03 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 30 April, the geomagnetic activity in the
Australian region was at quiet levels. The Antarctic region observed
mostly quiet levels; one active period was detected at Mawson
station. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly
at quiet levels for the next three UT days, 01-03 May, with a
chance of isolated unsettled periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements
on UT day 30 April. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 01-03 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
02 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
03 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mainly near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements
for the Australian regions on UT day 30 April. Sporadic E layers
were observed over most sites. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions
are expected in the Australian regions for the next three UT
days, 01-03 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 24100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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