[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 03 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 4 09:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 03 May. Currently,
the visible disc is spotless. No Earth-bound CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO and STEREO images. Noted an unstable small
filament NW quadrant and a prominence SE limb. Very low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 04-06
May. During UT day 03 May, the solar wind speed remained under
340 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 2-5 nT until
03/1700UT then increased, reaching 10 nT at 03/2000UT. The north-south
IMF component (Bz) varied between -5 and +3 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to be at background to slightly enhanced levels
for the next three UT days, 04-06 May due to small patchy coronal
hole influences.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11100022
Cocos Island 3 11110022
Darwin 2 11100022
Townsville 3 12100022
Learmonth 2 11100022
Alice Springs 2 02100012
Gingin 1 01000012
Canberra 1 01000011
Hobart 2 02010011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
Macquarie Island 1 01010001
Casey 2 22100011
Mawson 9 32212024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 12 Quiet to Unsettled
05 May 7 Mostly Quiet
06 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 03 May, the geomagnetic activity in the Australian
region was at Quiet levels. The Antarctic region observed mostly
Quiet conditions with one isolated Active period at Mawson station.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet
levels for the next three UT days, 04-06 May, with possible Unsettled
periods due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three UT days, 04-06 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced ones across
the Australian region on 03 May. Mostly normal HF propagation
conditions are expected in the Australian region for the next
three UT days, 04-06 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6e+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 28600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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