[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 18 Jun 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 19 09:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 18 June. Very
Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 19-21
June. There are currently no numbered active regions on the solar
disk. No returning regions are expected. No Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. During
the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed gradually increased from
270 km/s to 310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 1-8 nT
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -6/+4 nT. Solar
wind conditions are expected to remain at background levels on
UT days 19-21 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 02111000
Cocos Island 1 01011000
Darwin 2 02111001
Townsville 3 12111111
Learmonth 2 02111000
Alice Springs 0 01001000
Gingin 2 02101010
Canberra 0 01001000
Hobart 2 01102110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00002000
Casey 3 12111110
Mawson 8 13221114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2111 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 5 Quiet
20 Jun 5 Quiet
21 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 18 June, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
in the Australian region and mainly Quiet in the Antarctic region,
with some isolated Unsettled and Active periods. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at Quiet levels on UT days 19-21 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected for
the next three UT days, 19-21 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 1
Jun -12
Jul -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced
levels on UT day 18 June. Sporadic E was observed over some Australian
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next
three UT days, 19-21 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 299 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 16600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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