[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 18 Jun 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 19 09:31:30 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jun             20 Jun             21 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 18 June. Very 
Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 19-21 
June. There are currently no numbered active regions on the solar 
disk. No returning regions are expected. No Earthward directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. During 
the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed gradually increased from 
270 km/s to 310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 1-8 nT 
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -6/+4 nT. Solar 
wind conditions are expected to remain at background levels on 
UT days 19-21 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   02111000
      Cocos Island         1   01011000
      Darwin               2   02111001
      Townsville           3   12111111
      Learmonth            2   02111000
      Alice Springs        0   01001000
      Gingin               2   02101010
      Canberra             0   01001000
      Hobart               2   01102110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00002000
      Casey                3   12111110
      Mawson               8   13221114

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2111 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jun     5    Quiet
20 Jun     5    Quiet
21 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 18 June, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet 
in the Australian region and mainly Quiet in the Antarctic region, 
with some isolated Unsettled and Active periods. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be at Quiet levels on UT days 19-21 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected for 
the next three UT days, 19-21 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jun    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      1
Jun      -12
Jul      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced 
levels on UT day 18 June. Sporadic E was observed over some Australian 
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next 
three UT days, 19-21 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 299 km/sec  Density:    8.5 p/cc  Temp:    16600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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