[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 19 Jun 2020

Sat Jun 20 09:31:29 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jun             21 Jun             22 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 June. Very 
low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 20-22 
June. There are currently no numbered active regions on the solar 
disk. No returning regions are expected. No Earthward directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. During 
the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed varied in the range 300 
km/s to 350 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 and 7 nT 
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -3/+6 nT. Solar 
wind conditions are expected to remain at background levels on 
UT days 20-22 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   12000001
      Cocos Island         1   02100010
      Darwin               2   12100001
      Townsville           2   12011101
      Learmonth            2   02110101
      Alice Springs        1   12000001
      Gingin               0   01000001
      Canberra             0   02000000
      Hobart               2   11011101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                2   12110101
      Mawson              14   23010026

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1211 2111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jun     5    Quiet
21 Jun     5    Quiet
22 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 19 June, geomagnetic conditions were quiet 
in the Australian region and mainly quiet in the Antarctic region, 
with one isolated unsettled period. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be at quiet levels on UT days 20-22 June.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to moderately 
enhanced levels on UT day 19 June. Sporadic E was observed over 
some sites. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted 
to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 20-22 June.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Jun     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      1
Jun      -12
Jul      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to moderately 
enhanced levels on UT day 19 June across the Australian regions. 
Sporadic E was observed over some Australian sites. MUFs in the 
Australian region are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted 
to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 20-22 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 298 km/sec  Density:    9.5 p/cc  Temp:    17800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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