[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 17 Jun 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 18 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 17 June. Very
Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 18-20
June. There are currently no numbered active regions on the solar
disk. No returning regions are expected. No Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. During
the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed decreased from around
360 km/s to 270 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range
1-6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -6/+3
nT. Solar wind conditions may have moderate enhancements on UT
day 18 June due to coronal hole effects, returning to background
levels on UT days 19-20 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 21111100
Cocos Island 2 21111100
Darwin 3 21111101
Townsville 2 21111100
Learmonth 3 21112100
Alice Springs 1 20001000
Gingin 1 20001000
Canberra 1 20001000
Hobart 2 11112100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00002000
Casey 3 21112100
Mawson 3 11112200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 4 1111 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 7 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun 5 Quiet
20 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 17 June, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Conditions may increase
to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 18 June due to minor coronal
hole effects, returning to Quiet conditions on UT days 19-20
June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected for
the next three UT days, 18-20 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 1
Jun -12
Jul -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced
levels on UT day 17 June. Sporadic E was observed over some Australian
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next
three UT days, 18-20 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 36300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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