[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 16 Jun 2020

Wed Jun 17 09:31:28 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jun             18 Jun             19 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 16 June. Very 
Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 17-19 
June. There are currently no numbered active regions on the solar 
disk as active region 2765 has rotated around the western limb. 
No returning regions are expected. No Earthward directed CMEs 
were observed in the available coronagraph images. During the 
last 24 hours, the solar wind speed, as measured by DSCOVR, increased 
after 16/0800 UT from around 320 km/s to between 400 to 500 km/s. 
However, the solar wind speed, as measured by ACE, only increased 
to between 340 to 380 km/s. The phi angle rotated from positive 
to negative at the same time, possibly due to a solar sector 
boundary crossing (SSBC). The IMF only experienced a minor increase. 
The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 1-6 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was -4/+4 nT. Solar wind conditions 
are expected to have moderate enhancements on UT days 17 to 18 
June due to coronal hole effects, returning to background levels 
on UT day 19 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110021
      Cocos Island         2   01010021
      Darwin               2   11110021
      Townsville           2   11110021
      Learmonth            1   11110010
      Alice Springs        1   10010011
      Gingin               1   00000021
      Canberra             1   00100011
      Hobart               1   00110011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00110000
      Casey                1   01100011
      Mawson               6   12310131

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1112 2111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 16 June, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet 
in the Australian region and Quiet to Unsettled in the Antarctic 
region. Conditions are expected to increase to Quiet to Unsettled 
levels on UT days 17-18 June due to minor coronal hole effects, 
returning to Quiet conditions on UT day 19 June.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected for 
the next three UT days, 17-19 June.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Jun    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      1
Jun      -12
Jul      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced 
levels on UT day 16 June. Sporadic E was observed over some Australian 
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next 
three UT days, 17 to 19 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 319 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    42900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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