[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 15 Jun 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 16 09:31:28 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 15 June. Very
Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 16
to 18 June. Active region 2765 appears stable and will rotate
to the farside of the Sun on UT day 16 June. No returning regions
expected. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind
speed was at its nominal level, varying between 300-340 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 2-6 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -5/+3 nT. Solar wind conditions
are expected to be near its nominal levels on UT 16 June, with
some mild enhancements possible on UT days 17 to 18 June due
to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 01121000
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 2 11121001
Learmonth 2 01121000
Alice Springs 0 00110000
Gingin 2 01121000
Canberra 1 00021000
Hobart 2 01122000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 00031000
Casey 2 02120100
Mawson 2 11111101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 5 Quiet
17 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 15 June, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Mostly Quiet global
geomagnetic conditions are expected for UT day 16 June. Conditions
are expected to increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT days
17-18 June due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected for
the next three UT days, 16-18 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 1
Jun -12
Jul -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced
levels on UT day 15 June. Sporadic E was observed over some Australian
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next
three UT days, 16 to 18 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 11400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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