[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 12 Jun 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 13 09:31:21 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 June. Very
low solar activity is expected for the next three days, 13 to
15 June. Active region 2765 (now at S23W48) has one spot and
appears stable. No returning regions expected. No Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. The solar
wind speed declined from 400 km/s to 330 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) varied in the range 3-5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was -3/+3 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to
be near nominal levels for 13-15 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11110000
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 1 11110001
Learmonth 2 22110000
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Gingin 0 00100000
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart 1 01110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 12211110
Mawson 6 02111133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2100 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 7 Quiet
14 Jun 7 Quiet
15 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 12 June, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian region and quiet to unsettled in Antarctica.
Mostly quiet global geomagnetic conditions are expected for 13-15
June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected for
the next three UT days, 13 to 15 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 1
Jun -12
Jul -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to moderately
enhanced levels on 12 June. Sporadic E were observed at all Australian
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted to somewhat enhanced values for the next three
UT days, 13 to 15 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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