[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 13 Jun 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 14 09:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 June. Very
low solar activity is expected for the next three days, 14 to
16 June. Active region 2765 (now at S23W61) appears stable. No
returning regions expected. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph images. A CME first seen the LASCO
C2 satellite imagery at 12/1400 UT is not expected to affect
the Earth. The solar wind speed was at its nominal level, varying
in the range of 300 km/s to 330 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied
in the range 3-5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -3/+3 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to be near its
nominal levels for 14-16 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 00000000
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 1 01001001
Townsville 2 11101011
Learmonth 0 00000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 01000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 0 01100000
Mawson 0 01000010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 5 Quiet
15 Jun 5 Quiet
16 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 13 June, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian and Antarctica regions. Mostly quiet global
geomagnetic conditions are expected for 14-16 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected for
the next three UT days, 14 to 16 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 1
Jun -12
Jul -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to moderately
enhanced levels on 13 June. Sporadic E were observed over most
Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected
to be mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels
for the next three UT days, 14 to 16 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3e+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60e+06 (normal fluence)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 16900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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