[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 13 Jun 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 14 09:31:26 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jun             15 Jun             16 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 June. Very 
low solar activity is expected for the next three days, 14 to 
16 June. Active region 2765 (now at S23W61) appears stable. No 
returning regions expected. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph images. A CME first seen the LASCO 
C2 satellite imagery at 12/1400 UT is not expected to affect 
the Earth. The solar wind speed was at its nominal level, varying 
in the range of 300 km/s to 330 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied 
in the range 3-5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range 
was -3/+3 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to be near its 
nominal levels for 14-16 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00000000
      Cocos Island         0   00000000
      Darwin               1   01001001
      Townsville           2   11101011
      Learmonth            0   00000000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Gingin               0   01000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                0   01100000
      Mawson               0   01000010

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4  1111 1111    


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jun     5    Quiet
15 Jun     5    Quiet
16 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 13 June, geomagnetic conditions were quiet 
in the Australian and Antarctica regions. Mostly quiet global 
geomagnetic conditions are expected for 14-16 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected for 
the next three UT days, 14 to 16 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jun    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      1
Jun      -12
Jul      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to moderately 
enhanced levels on 13 June. Sporadic E were observed over most 
Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected 
to be mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels 
for the next three UT days, 14 to 16 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3e+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.9e+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60e+06 (normal fluence)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    16900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list