[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 11 Jun 2020

Fri Jun 12 09:31:28 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jun             13 Jun             14 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 June. Very 
low solar activity is expected for the next three days, 12 to 
14 June. AR 2765(S23W34) has one spot and appears stable. No 
returning regions expected. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph images. The solar wind speed declined, 
ranging between 389 and 496 km/s, and peaking at 11/2330 UT. 
The total IMF (Bt) reached 5 nT and the north-south IMF component, 
Bz, range was -4 to 3 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected 
to be near nominal levels 12 to 14 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11001000
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11001001
      Townsville           2   11102011
      Learmonth            3   0211----
      Alice Springs        1   11001000
      Gingin               0   01001000
      Canberra             0   01001000
      Hobart               1   1100----    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                3   22201000
      Mawson               7   24212110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   2333 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jun     7    Quiet
13 Jun     7    Quiet
14 Jun     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day, 11 June. The Antarctic region observed quiet 
to active conditions. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 12 
to 14 June.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
13 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
14 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected for 
the next three UT days, 12 to 14 June.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Jun     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      1
Jun      -12
Jul      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
13 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
14 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
on 11 June. Sporadic E observed at Cocos Is. 04-15 UT, Darwin 
04-10 UT, Townsville, Norfolk Is. 02-08 UT, and Learmonth 05-10 
UT. Night spread F observed at Cocos Is., Townsville, Perth, 
Norfolk Is. and Learmonth. MUFs in the Australian region are 
expected to be mostly near predicted to somewhat enhanced for 
the next three days, 12 to 14 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 468 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:   248000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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