[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Jun 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 11 09:31:27 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jun             12 Jun             13 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 June with background 
X-ray flux levels subsiding. Very low solar activity is expected 
for the next three days, 11 to 13 June. AR 2765(S23W20) has decayed 
in area and now has one spot. No returning regions expected. 
No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
images. The solar wind speed range was 442 to 504 km/s peaking 
at 1256 UT, wind speed is currently around 470 km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) reached 7 nT and the north-south IMF component, Bz, 
range was -7 to 4 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to be 
near nominal levels 11 to 13 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12220110
      Cocos Island         2   12120100
      Darwin               4   12220111
      Townsville           4   22220111
      Learmonth            4   22220110
      Alice Springs        3   12220000
      Gingin               4   13220110
      Canberra             3   12220110
      Hobart               5   22221111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     5   11241000
      Casey                7   33231110
      Mawson              16   24442124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1000 2123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jun     7    Quiet
12 Jun     7    Quiet
13 Jun     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 10 June. The Antarctic region observed quiet 
to active conditions. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 11 
to 13 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three UT days, 11 to 13 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jun     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      1
Jun      -12
Jul      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
12 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
13 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
on 10 June. Sporadic E was observed at Norfolk Is. and Darwin 
afternoon and early evening. Night spread F observed at most 
stations. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values for the next three days, 11 to 
13 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:   117000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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