[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 26 Jul 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 27 09:31:29 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jul             28 Jul             29 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 26 July. There 
is one numbered region, AR2767 (S22E09 at 22:55UT/26), on the 
solar disk visible from the earthside. Very low solar activity 
is expected for the next three UT days, 27 to 29 July. Through 
UT day 26 July, the solar wind speed varied from 380 km/s to 
420 km/s, the total IMF varied between 1 and 4 nT, the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) varied in the range +3/-1 nT and the solar 
wind particle density showed a gradual decrease from 20 ppcc 
to 3 ppcc during this day. Solar wind parameters are expected 
to show minor to mild enhancements for the next 3 UT days (27 
to 29 July) due to possible weak coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11010000
      Cocos Island         0   10010000
      Darwin               1   11110000
      Townsville           1   11010001
      Learmonth            0   01010000
      Alice Springs        0   00010000
      Gingin               0   10000000
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               0   11000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   22100000
      Mawson               7   32121004

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        27
           Planetary             10   4222 1114     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jul     7    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jul     7    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jul     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and the Antarctic 
regions were quiet with one Antarctic station also recording 
one period of unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on UT 
days 27 to 29 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
minor to mild enhancements on UT day 26 July. MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three 
UT days, 27 to 29 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jul    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -1
Jul      -12
Aug      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were mostly 
near predicted monthly values with minor to mild enhancements 
on UT day 26 July. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs 
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days, 27 to 29 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    9.3 p/cc  Temp:    57400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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