[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 27 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 28 09:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 27 July. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible disc,
2767(S22W05). Very Low solar activity is expected for the next
three UT days, 28-30 July. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph images. During UT day 27 July, the
solar wind speed increased slightly throughout the day, currently
around 440 km/s due to the arrival of HSS from a small coronal
hole. The total IMF (Bt) was below 6 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be at background to slightly enhanced levels during
UT days 28-30 due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 01100000
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 1 01100100
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Gingin 1 01100100
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 1 11100100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 5 23210111
Mawson 8 33230013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1001 0102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 27 July. The Antarctic region observed mostly
quiet levels, with unsettled periods at Mawson station. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled during
the next three UT days, 28-30 July due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 28-30 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were mostly
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced on UT day
27 July. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values for the next three UT days, 28-30 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 46100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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