[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 25 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 26 09:31:31 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 25 July. There
is one numbered region, AR2767, on the visible disk. Very low
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 26 to
28 July. One narrow CME was observed from the western limb in
the LASCO and Stereo A (cor2) images from around 0600 UT/25 July.
It could not be associated to any front side event and its location
is not clear, but does not seem to be earthward directed from
the preliminary analysis. Through UT day 25 July, the solar wind
speed varied from 340 km/s to 400 km/s, the total IMF varied
between 5 and 10 nT, the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied
in the range +7/-7 nT and the solar wind particle density varied
in the range 6 to 18 ppcc during this day. Solar wind parameters
are expected to show minor to moderate enhancements for the next
3 UT days (26 to 28 July) due to possible coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 31222213
Cocos Island 7 31222113
Darwin 8 31222213
Townsville 8 32222213
Learmonth 8 31223212
Alice Springs 8 31222213
Gingin 5 31212102
Canberra 7 31222103
Hobart 8 31322113
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
Macquarie Island 8 22432002
Casey 7 32221113
Mawson 26 63333235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 2322 3423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and the Antarctic
regions were mostly quiet to unsettled with Antarctic region
also experiencing short and isolated periods of active and minor
storm conditions. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly at unsettled levels on UT days 26-28 July due to
the coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values to moderately
enhanced on UT day 25 July. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 26 to 28
July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were mostly
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced on UT day
25 July. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values for the next three UT days, 26 to 28 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 41700 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list