[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 22 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 23 09:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 22 July. There
is one numbered region, AR2767, on the visible disk in the southeast
quadrant with one sunspot. No returning regions are expected.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
23-25 July. The slow moving CME observed in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO
A imagery on UT day 19 July may have a weak impact on Earth either
late on UT day 23 July or on 24 July. No new Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images in the
past 24 hours. On UT day 22 July, the solar wind speed range
was 270-320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-6 nT, and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was between +/-4 nT. Solar
wind parameters are expected to become moderately enhanced on
UT days 23-24 July due to a equatorial coronal hole reaching
geoeffective location on the solar disk, combined with the possible
weak impact of the CME on either 23 or 24 July, then begin to
return to background levels on 25 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11000100
Cocos Island 0 00100100
Darwin 1 11000101
Townsville 2 12100101
Learmonth 1 11000200
Alice Springs 0 01000100
Gingin 0 10000100
Canberra 0 01000100
Hobart 1 11000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 21100210
Mawson 7 33000133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2111 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
24 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
25 Jul 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
Quiet on UT day 22 July. The Antarctic region experienced Quiet
to Unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT days 23-25 July,
with a chance of isolated Active periods on 23-24 July, due to
the approaching coronal hole effects, and a weak CME possibly
impacting Earth either late on UT day 23 July or on 24 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 23-25 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were mostly
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 22
July. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 23-25 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 28600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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