[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 23 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 24 09:31:29 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 23 July. There
is one numbered region, AR2767 (S22 E47), on the visible disk
with one sunspot. Very Low solar activity is expected for the
next three UT days, 24-26 July. The slow moving CME observed
in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO A imagery on UT day 19 July may have
a weak impact on Earth on 24 July. No new Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images in the
past 24 hours. On UT day 23 July, the solar wind speed range
was 290-320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range was 1-5 nT, and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was between +/-3 nT. Solar
wind parameters are expected to become moderately enhanced on
UT day 24 July due to an equatorial coronal hole reaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk, combined with the possible weak impact
of the CME on 24 July, then begin to return to background levels
on 25 July. The solar wind may become moderately enhanced again
on UT day 26 July due to a south polar extension coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11011000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 01111001
Townsville 2 21011001
Learmonth 1 01111100
Alice Springs 0 00001000
Gingin 0 00000000
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 1 11011100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 1 01111100
Mawson 4 31111012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2101 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
25 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
Quiet on UT day 23 July. The Antarctic region experienced Quiet
to Unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT days 24-26 July,
with a chance of isolated Active periods on 24 July, due to the
coronal hole effects, and a weak CME possibly impacting Earth
on 24 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 24-26 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were mostly
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 23
July. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 24-26 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 297 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 15800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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