[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 21 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 22 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 21 July. There
is a new sunspot region on the visible disc near the southeast
limb with one sunspot. No returning regions are expected. Very
Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 22-24
July. A CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO A imagery on
UT day 19 July. Initial analysis shows that the CME is slow moving
and that an Earth-directed component is possible, which may become
geoeffective later on UT day 23 July with only weak impacts expected.
No other Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. On UT day 21 July, the solar wind speed range
was 310 to 370 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range was 1-5 nT, and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was mainly between +/-3
nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to have moderate enhancements
starting on UT day 22 July and continuing on UT days 23-24 July
due to a small equatorial coronal hole reaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk, combined with the possible weak impact
of the CME on 23 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100110
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 01100100
Townsville 2 11110111
Learmonth 2 12010210
Alice Springs 1 01000110
Gingin 2 11000210
Canberra 0 01000100
Hobart 2 01100210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Casey 4 22110220
Mawson 11 34112114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1110 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 7 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
24 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
Quiet on UT day 21 July. The Antarctic region experienced mostly
Quiet conditions with some Unsettled to Active periods. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to increase to Quiet to Unsettled
levels on UT days 22-24 July, with a chance of isolated Active
periods on 23-24 July, due to the approaching coronal hole effects,
and a weak CME possibly impacting Earth later on 23 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 22-24 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were mostly
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 21
July. The Cocos Island region observed minor depressions in MUFs
during the local day. Sporadic E was observed over some sites.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 22-24 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 25500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list