[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 20 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 21 09:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 20 July. The visible
disc is spotless; no returning regions are expected. Very Low
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 21-23
July. A CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO A imagery on
UT day 19 July. It is currently being analysed to determine if
it has any Earth-directed component. No other Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. On UT
day 20 July, the solar wind speed range was 310 to 370 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) was below 5 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +/-3 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to
be near nominal levels on UT day 21 July. Mild enhancements in
solar wind are expected on UT days 22-23 July due to a small
equatorial coronal hole reaching geoeffective location on the
solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 01100000
Cocos Island 0 000-----
Darwin 0 10100000
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 0 00100001
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Gingin 0 01100000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12200001
Mawson 8 32112114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1012 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 5 Quiet
22 Jul 7 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
Quiet on UT day 20 July. The Antarctic region experienced mostly
Quiet conditions with some Unsettled-Active periods. Mostly Quiet
conditions are expected on 21 July, with conditions expected
to increase to Quiet-Unsettled levels on UT days 22-23 July due
to the approaching coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 21-23 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were mostly
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 20
July. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 21-23 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 27900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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