[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 19 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 20 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 July. The visible
disc is spotless; no returning regions are expected. No Earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images.
On UT day 19 July, the solar wind speed range was 320 to 350
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range was 1 to 7 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -5 nT. Very low solar activity
is expected for the next three UT days, 20-22 July. Solar wind
parameters are expected to be near nominal levels on UT days
20 and 21 July. Mild enhancements in solar wind is expected on
22 July due to a small equatorial coronal hole reaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 01101101
Cocos Island 0 01010000
Darwin 1 01101001
Townsville 2 11101101
Learmonth 2 01101201
Alice Springs 1 01001101
Gingin 2 00002201
Canberra 0 01001000
Hobart 2 11112100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 00121100
Casey 3 11201111
Mawson 10 21112215
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 5 Quiet
21 Jul 5 Quiet
22 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 19 July. The Antarctic region experienced mostly
quiet conditions with one isolated disturbed period. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on 20-22 July, with a chance of some
isolated unsettled periods on 21 and 22 July due to the approaching
small coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 20-22 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were mostly
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 19
July. Mild depressions were observed during local day over the
Cocos island region. The enhancements were mostly observed during
local night. Sporadic E and spread F were observed over some
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 20-22
July. Sporadic E and spread F occurrence are expected over some
sites.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 42500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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