[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 18 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 19 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 July. The visible
disc is spotless; no returning regions are expected. No Earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images.
The solar wind speed range was 330 to 420 km/s. The total IMF
range was 1 to 4 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +2 to -2 nT. Very low solar activity is expected for the
next three UT days, 19-21 July. Solar wind parameters are expected
to be near nominal levels during the next three day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11101000
Cocos Island 0 10010000
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 2 22101000
Learmonth 1 11111000
Alice Springs 1 11100000
Gingin 2 21102000
Hobart 1 11101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 01001000
Casey 3 22212000
Mawson 8 32221104
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 5 Quiet
20 Jul 5 Quiet
21 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were quiet on UT day 18 July. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected on 19-21 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 19-21 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were near
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 18 July.
The enhancements were mostly observed during local night. Sporadic
E were observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the
next three UT days, 19-21 July. Sporadic E and spread F occurrence
are expected over some sites.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 58200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list