[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 15 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 16 09:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 July. Magnetically
simple region SN92 at S32E22 had one spot that may now have disappeared.
There are no returning regions expected. No CMEs were observed
in LASCO or STEREO A images. The solar wind speed increased over
15 July peaking at 436 km/s and remains near this level presently.
The total IMF range was 2 to 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6/-6 nT. Very low solar activity is expected
for the next three days, 16 to 18 July. Solar wind parameters
are expected to be near ambient levels over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 01213200
Cocos Island 1 0-111100
Darwin 5 12213200
Townsville 5 12213201
Learmonth 5 02223200
Alice Springs 4 11213200
Gingin 4 01213200
Canberra 3 01113200
Hobart 3 01113200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
Macquarie Island 6 00024300
Casey 6 12223300
Mawson 8 22322312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 4442 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 7 Quiet
17 Jul 7 Quiet
18 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet with one unsettled period on UT day 15 July. The Antarctic
region observed mostly quiet to unsettled levels of activity.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 16 to 18 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 16 to 18 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were near
predicted monthly values to enhanced on UT day 15 July. The ionosphere
was again weak over Darwin 19-21 UT. Night spread F was observed
at Brisbane, Canberra, Hobart and Sydney. Afternoon/early evening
sporadic E observed at Niue, Brisbane, Learmonth and pre-dawn
sporadic E observed at Niue and Norfolk Is. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 16 to 18 July. Sporadic E and spread
F occurrence is expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 33400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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