[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 14 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 15 09:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 July. A new
cycle region has appeared at S30E34. The visible disc is spotless
and there are no returning regions expected. No CMEs were observed
in LASCO or STEREO A images. The solar wind speed peaked at 396
km/s at 0617 UT and is now below 350 km/s with a declining trend.
The total IMF range was 6 to 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -9 nT. The extended period of Bz that commenced
on 13 July ~2040 UT, ended 14 July ~0930 UT. Very low solar activity
is expected for the next three days, 15-17 July. The solar wind
is expected to be near ambient levels over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 32311100
Cocos Island 5 33210100
Darwin 4 32211100
Townsville 5 32311100
Learmonth 5 32311100
Alice Springs 5 32311100
Gingin 7 42311200
Canberra 5 32311100
Hobart 8 32412101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
Macquarie Island 9 23432100
Casey 8 43311200
Mawson 29 66523200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2222 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jul 7 Quiet
17 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled on UT day 14 July. The Antarctic region observed
mostly quiet to active levels. The increase in activity was a
response to a sustained period of the north-south IMF component
directed mildly southward between 13 July ~2040 UT and 14 July
~~0930 UT. Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet over the
forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 15-17 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly
values to enhanced on UT day 14 July. The ionosphere was weak
over Darwin 19-21 UT. Night spread F was observed at Brisbane,
Canberra, Learmonth, Norfolk Is. and Sydney. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 15-17 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 12.9 p/cc Temp: 29700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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