[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 July 20 issued 2334 UT on 13 Jul 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 14 09:34:38 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 July. There
are currently no numbered regions on a spotless visible disc.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
14-16 July. A small eruption from S38W64 was observed in SDO
193 images at 0248 UT with some ejecta seen in C2 commencing
0348 UT, but not considered significant. There was also a filament
eruption from N51W36 in SDO 304 at 1229 UT with H-alpha images
confirming the disappearance, although no signature in LASCO
or STEREO A images has been observed. Solar wind speed increased
through 13 July and peaked at 390 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) reached
11 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 6 to -9
nT with some extended negative periods. The solar wind speed
is expected to be slightly enhanced due weak coronal hole effects.
A glancing blow from a CME observed on 9 July is still possible
on 14 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 12220122
Cocos Island 4 12210112
Darwin 5 22220122
Townsville 5 12220122
Learmonth 5 12220122
Alice Springs 4 12210122
Gingin 3 11210112
Canberra 2 01110111
Hobart 3 11120111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 00130000
Casey 5 22211122
Mawson 13 13322225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 15 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jul 8 Quiet
16 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 13 July. The Antarctic region observed mostly
quiet levels, with some unsettled periods. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 14 July. Isolated active
periods are possible on 14 July should the slow CME observed
on 9 July arrive at Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly fair to normal HF propagation conditions are
expected for the next three UT days, 14-16 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly
values to slightly enhanced on UT day 12 July. Night spread F
and mostly afternoon and evening sporadic E observed over some
Australian sites. Some blanketing sporadic E around dawn at Darwin
and Cocos Is. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days,
14-16 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 292 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 11600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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