[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 12 Jul 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 13 09:31:25 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jul             14 Jul             15 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 July. There 
are currently no numbered regions on the visible disc. Very low 
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 13-15 
July. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed 
in available coronagraphic imagery. During UT day 12 July, the 
solar wind speed was near its background levels, under 320 km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) varied between 1-5 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) was mostly neutral. During the next three 
UT days, 13-15 July, the solar wind speed is expected to be slightly 
enhanced due weak patchy coronal holes. A glancing blow from 
a CME observed on 9 July may be observed at the end of UT day 
13 July and on 14 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00011000
      Cocos Island         0   00100000
      Darwin               1   11101000
      Townsville           1   01011001
      Learmonth            1   10102000
      Alice Springs        0   00001000
      Gingin               0   00011000
      Canberra             0   00011000
      Hobart               1   00022000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                1   11110100
      Mawson               2   10000013

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1000 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jul    12    Quiet to Unsettled with the possibility of an 
                isolated Active period.
14 Jul    15    Quiet to Unsettled with the possibility of an 
                isolated Active period.
15 Jul     7    Mostly Quiet.

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 12 July. The Antarctic region observed mostly 
quiet levels, with one isolated unsettled period. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next 
three UT days, 13-15 July. Isolated active periods may be observed 
late today, 13 July and on 14 July should CME observed on 9 July 
arrive at Earth.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 13-15 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jul    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -1
Jul      -12
Aug      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly 
values to slightly enhanced on UT day 12 July. Sporadic E blaketing 
observed at tines over Darwin and Cocos Island sites. Spread 
F and Sporadic E observed over some Australian sites. MUFs in 
the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days, 13-15 July.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 321 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    13100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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