[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 July 20 issued 2337 UT on 16 Jul 2020

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 17 09:37:12 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jul             18 Jul             19 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 July. The visible 
disc is spotless with no returning regions expected. SDO 304 
images show filament movement commencing at ~0428 UT near N34W40. 
There is a small signature in STEREO A images around 1500 UT 
that may be related to this event. A CME was first observed in 
LASCO images at 0400 UT directed to the east and can be seen 
in STEREO A images. This may be related to what appears to be 
an erupting prominence on the north east limb starting ~1900 
UT on 15 July. It is not considered to be Earth directed. The 
solar wind speed range was 395 to 450 km/s. The total IMF range 
was 2 to 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+4 to -4 nT. Very low solar activity is expected for the next 
three days, 17 to 19 July. Solar wind parameters are expected 
to be near ambient levels over the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01021111
      Cocos Island         0   01010000
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           3   01121111
      Learmonth            2   01111111
      Alice Springs        2   00021110
      Gingin               2   00012121
      Canberra             2   00022110
      Hobart               3   00032110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     3   00032110
      Casey                3   01022210
      Mawson              10   11212125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1222 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jul     7    Quiet
18 Jul     7    Quiet
19 Jul     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic 
regions were quiet on UT day 16 July. Mostly quiet conditions 
are expected on 17 to 19 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 17 to 19 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jul     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -1
Jul      -12
Aug      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic region were near 
predicted monthly values to enhanced on UT day 16 July. The ionosphere 
was again weak over Darwin 18-21 UT. Night spread F was observed 
at Niue, Brisbane, Norfolk Is., Perth, Sydney. Afternoon/early 
evening sporadic E observed at Cocos Is., Niue, and near dawn 
sporadic E observed at Brisbane and Norfolk Is. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
for the next three days, 17 to 19 July. Sporadic E and spread 
F occurrence is expected.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    65300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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