[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 25 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 26 10:31:23 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 25 January. There
are currently one numbered region 2757(N04E20) visible on the
solar disc and another region at the SE limb(no number yet).
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 26-28 January. There is a chance of increased solar
activity over the next coming days due to new development. Activity
observed from region 2757 starting 25/0642UT. Weak CME activity
observed in STEREO coronagraph images starting 25/1252 UT. Gaps
in STEREO images and absence of SOHO LASCO Coronagraph images
after 25/0642 UT limited our ability to determine the impacts.
No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was at
nominal levels, around 300 km/s. The total IMF Bt varied between
2-6 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was in the
range of +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
near its background levels today, 26 January. Slight enhancements
may be observed on 27-28 January due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 3 12111101
Townsville 3 12111111
Learmonth 2 11111101
Alice Springs 1 11011001
Gingin 1 11010000
Canberra 1 11010011
Hobart 2 02110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 9 24421011
Mawson 4 23211000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 5 Quiet
27 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jan 7 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 25 January was Quiet for the
Australian region. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Active
conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at Quiet levels for the next three days, 26-28 January with a
chance of isolated Unsettled periods on 27-28 January due to
weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
27 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
28 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days, 26-28 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan -23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on 25 January. Minor
to Moderate MUFs depressions observed at Equatorial region. Sporadic-E
occurrences were seen over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric
support is expected for the next three UT days, 26-28 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 30300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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