[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 January 20 issued 2335 UT on 26 Jan 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 27 10:35:04 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 26 January. There
is currently one numbered region 2757(N03E05) visible on the
solar disc. This region showed some growth and produced A flaring
activity over the period. Another region has also rotated over
the SE limb (no number yet). Very low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three UT days, 27-29 January. There
is a chance of increased solar activity over the next coming
days due to new development. A weak CME observed to west in STEREO
coronagraph images around 26/0154 UT. Gaps in STEREO images and
absence of SOHO LASCO coronagraph images between 25/2348 UT-
26/0524UT limited our ability to determine any earth directed
component. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available coronagraph imagery. During the last 24 hours, the
solar wind speed was at nominal levels, under 350 km/s. The total
IMF Bt varied between 1-6 nT and the north-south component of
the IMF (Bz) was in the range of +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to be near its background levels to slightly enhanced
for 27-29 January due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11001211
Cocos Island 2 11001200
Darwin 3 11101211
Townsville 2 11001211
Learmonth 3 11002211
Alice Springs 2 11001200
Gingin 2 20001211
Canberra 2 11001200
Hobart 2 11101110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 10001000
Casey 7 32311211
Mawson 7 33212210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 1 0200 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 5 Quiet
28 Jan 10 Quiet with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods
29 Jan 7 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 26 January was Quiet for the
Australian region. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Unsettled
conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at Quiet levels for the next three days, 27-29 January with a
chance of isolated Unsettled periods due to weak coronal hole
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
28 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
29 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days, 27-29 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on 26 January. Minor
to Moderate MUFs depressions observed at Equatorial region. Sporadic-E
occurrences were seen over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric
support is expected for the next three UT days, 27-29 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 32700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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