[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 January 20 issued 2335 UT on 26 Jan 2020

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 27 10:35:04 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jan             28 Jan             29 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 26 January. There 
is currently one numbered region 2757(N03E05) visible on the 
solar disc. This region showed some growth and produced A flaring 
activity over the period. Another region has also rotated over 
the SE limb (no number yet). Very low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next three UT days, 27-29 January. There 
is a chance of increased solar activity over the next coming 
days due to new development. A weak CME observed to west in STEREO 
coronagraph images around 26/0154 UT. Gaps in STEREO images and 
absence of SOHO LASCO coronagraph images between 25/2348 UT- 
26/0524UT limited our ability to determine any earth directed 
component. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the 
available coronagraph imagery. During the last 24 hours, the 
solar wind speed was at nominal levels, under 350 km/s. The total 
IMF Bt varied between 1-6 nT and the north-south component of 
the IMF (Bz) was in the range of +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to be near its background levels to slightly enhanced 
for 27-29 January due to weak coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11001211
      Cocos Island         2   11001200
      Darwin               3   11101211
      Townsville           2   11001211
      Learmonth            3   11002211
      Alice Springs        2   11001200
      Gingin               2   20001211
      Canberra             2   11001200
      Hobart               2   11101110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   10001000
      Casey                7   32311211
      Mawson               7   33212210

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           7   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              1   0200 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jan     5    Quiet
28 Jan    10    Quiet with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods
29 Jan     7    Mostly Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 26 January was Quiet for the 
Australian region. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly 
at Quiet levels for the next three days, 27-29 January with a 
chance of isolated Unsettled periods due to weak coronal hole 
effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
28 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
29 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days, 27-29 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jan   -24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the Australian region on 26 January. Minor 
to Moderate MUFs depressions observed at Equatorial region. Sporadic-E 
occurrences were seen over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric 
support is expected for the next three UT days, 27-29 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 303 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    32700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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