[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 24 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 25 10:31:24 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 24 January. A
new sunspot has emerged in the NE quadrant(no number yet). Very
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 25-27 January. There is a chance of increased solar
activity over the next coming days due to new development. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was at
nominal levels, under 350 km/s. The total IMF Bt was mostly steady
near 3 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was in
the range of +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be
mostly near its background levels for the next two days, 25-26
January. Slight enhancements may be observed on 27 January due
to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11101100
Cocos Island 0 10000100
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 1 11001100
Alice Springs 1 00001101
Gingin 0 00001010
Canberra 1 00101010
Hobart 1 01102000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00101000
Casey 7 33311011
Mawson 9 42101142
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1200 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 5 Quiet
26 Jan 5 Quiet
27 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 24 January was Quiet for the
Australian region. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Active
conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at Quiet levels for the next three days, 25-27 January with a
chance of isolated Unsettled periods on 27 January due to weak
coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days, 25-27 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on 24 January. Minor
to Moderate MUFs depressions observed at Cocos Island region.
Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. Similar levels
of ionospheric support is expected for the next three UT days,
25-27 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 40500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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