[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 23 Jan 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 24 10:31:25 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jan             25 Jan             26 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 23 January. The 
visible solar disk is currently spotless. Active region 2756 
may rotate on the visible solar disk on UT day 25 January. During 
the previous rotation, AR2756 produced two weak B-class flares. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 24 to 26 January. No Earth directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours. 
During UT day 23 January, the solar wind speed varied between 
320 km/s and 375 km/s. The total IMF Bt was mostly steady near 
4 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was in the 
range of +3 nT and -3 nT during the last 24 hours. The three 
day outlook (UT day 24 to 26 January) is for the solar wind to 
remain mostly near its background level.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21000111
      Cocos Island         1   11000110
      Darwin               2   11020111
      Townsville           2   21000111
      Learmonth            2   21000121
      Alice Springs        1   11000111
      Gingin               2   21000121
      Canberra             1   11000011
      Hobart               2   21000111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   11000000
      Casey               11   34411121
      Mawson              11   33111234

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1211 0002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jan     5    Quiet
25 Jan     5    Quiet
26 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been quiet across the Australian 
regions through UT day 23 January. In the Antarctic region geomagnetic 
activity varied from quiet to unsettled levels. Mostly quiet 
and occasional unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days (24 to 26 January).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation support are expected for 
the next three UT days. Conditions may be slightly poor in the 
Southern Hemisphere due to sporadic-E occurrences.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jan   -19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the Australian region on UT day 23 January 
with some periods of minor depressions as well as periods of 
minor enhancements. Sporadic-E occurrences were also observed 
over some Australian stations. Nearly similar levels of ionospheric 
support is expected in the Australian regions for the next three 
UT days, 24 to 26 January.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    6.4 p/cc  Temp:    65700 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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