[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 22 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 23 10:31:25 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 22 January. The
visible solar disk is currently spotless. Very low levels of
solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 23 to
25 January. A faint CME was observed in the LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery starting at 22/0636 UT. Preliminary investigation suggest
that it is a far-side event and therefore will not affect Earth.
During UT day 22 January, the solar wind speed was steady near
its background level of 350 km/s. The total IMF Bt was in the
range of 3 to 7 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
was in the range of +5 nT and -5 nT during the last 24 hours.
The three day outlook (UT day 23 to 25 January) is for the solar
wind to remain mostly near its background level.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 12121022
Cocos Island 3 11111022
Darwin 3 12111012
Townsville 6 12222023
Learmonth 5 22121122
Alice Springs 4 12121012
Gingin 6 21121123
Canberra 6 22222022
Hobart 5 12222022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 11133001
Casey 17 34532123
Mawson 23 44323136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0001 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 5 Quiet
24 Jan 5 Quiet
25 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been quiet across the Australian
regions through UT day, 22 January. In the Antarctic region geomagnetic
activity varied from quiet to active levels in response to prolonged
southward IMF Bz condition. Mostly quiet and occasional unsettled
geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next three UT days
(23 to 25 January).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation support are expected for
the next three UT days. Conditions may be slightly poor in the
Southern Hemisphere due to sporadic-E occurrences.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on UT day 22 January
with some periods of minor depressions as well as periods of
minor enhancements. Sporadic-E occurrences were also observed
over some Australian stations. Nearly similar levels of ionospheric
support is expected in the Australian regions for the next three
UT days, 23 to 25 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 35600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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