[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 January 20 issued 2332 UT on 21 Jan 2020

Wed Jan 22 10:32:29 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 71/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jan             23 Jan             24 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   70/5              70/5              70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 21 January. The 
visible solar disk is currently spotless. Very low levels of 
solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 22 to 
24 January. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours. During UT day 21 
January, the solar wind speed increased gradually from 275 km/s 
to 370 km/s, in response to the arrival of the patchy coronal 
hole effect. The total IMF Bt was in the range of 1 to 10 nT 
and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was in the range 
of +8 nT and -9 nT during the last 24 hours. The outlook for 
today (UT day 22 January) is for the solar wind to be mostly 
near its background to mildly elevated levels in response to 
small patchy coronal holes. Mostly near background solar wind 
speed is expected on UT day 23 and 24 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11122222
      Cocos Island         4   21111221
      Darwin               5   -1122222
      Townsville           5   01122222
      Learmonth            5   11122222
      Alice Springs        4   00122222
      Gingin               6   21112232
      Canberra             4   00112222
      Hobart               4   00212222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     5   00111411
      Casey               10   22312333
      Mawson              15   21113354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg       5
           Planetary            8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg       2
           Planetary            1   0000 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jan     5    Quiet
23 Jan     5    Quiet
24 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been quiet across the Australian 
regions through UT day, 21 January. In the Antarctic region geomagnetic 
activity varied from quiet to unsettled levels with isolated 
active periods during this time. Mostly quiet and occasional 
unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next three 
UT days (22 to 24 January).

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation support are expected for 
the next three UT days. Conditions may be slightly poor in the 
Southern Hemisphere due to sporadic-E occurrences.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Jan   -20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the Australian region on UT day 21 January 
with some periods of minor depressions as well as periods of 
minor enhancements. Sporadic-E occurrences were also observed 
over some Australian stations. Nearly similar levels of ionospheric 
support is expected in the Australian regions for the next three 
UT days, 22 to 24 January.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 296 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    19100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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