[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 20 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 21 10:31:15 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 20 January. Very
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 21 to 23 January. The small flare observed at 19/1830
UT from a unnumbered region in the north east solar quadrant
does not appear to trigger a CME in the coronagraph imagery.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery during the last 24 hours. During UT day 20 January, the
solar wind speed varied from 325 to 275 km/s, and on a declining
tread in general. The total IMF Bt was in the range 1 to 4 nT
and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was in the range
+3 nT and -3 nT during the last 24 hours. The three day outlook
(UT day 21 to 23 January) is for the solar wind to remain mostly
near its background level. Some weak enhancements in solar wind
may occur today (UT day 21 January) due to small patchy coronal
holes reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 3 11-01022
Learmonth 1 11000001
Alice Springs 1 01000002
Gingin 1 11000010
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 1 01100101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 24320110
Mawson 6 12211123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 5 Quiet
22 Jan 5 Quiet
23 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been mostly quiet across the
Australian and Antarctic regions through UT day 20 January. Mostly
quiet and occasional unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected
for the next three UT days (21 to 23 January).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation support are expected for
the next three UT days. Conditions may be slightly poor in the
Southern hemisphere due to sporadic-E occurrences.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overall, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly
near predicted monthly values for the Australian region on UT
day 20 January. Some periods of depressions were observed over
the Niue island region. Sporadic-E occurrences were also observed
over some Australian stations. Nearly similar levels of ionospheric
support is expected in the Australian regions for the next three
UT days, 21 to 23 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 34200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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