[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 19 Jan 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 20 10:31:16 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jan             21 Jan             22 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 19 January. There 
are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc and no Earth 
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery 
during the last 24 hours. During UT day 19 January, the solar 
wind speed varied between 315 and 360 km/s, the total IMF Bt 
in the range 1 to 4 nT and the north-south component of the IMF 
(Bz) in the range +3 nT and -3 nT. The solar wind particle density 
varied between 1 and 6 ppcc during this time. A negative polarity 
coronal hole may result in a slight increase in solar wind speed 
from late on UT day 20 January. Very low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next three UT days, 20 to 22 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000011
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               2   11000112
      Townsville           4   12101122
      Learmonth            1   11000001
      Alice Springs        1   11000001
      Gingin               0   11000000
      Canberra             1   01100011
      Hobart               1   11110001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey               13   25422111
      Mawson               6   22211132

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1110 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jan     7    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jan     7    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been mostly quiet across the 
Australian and Antarctic regions through UT day, 19 January. 
Mostly quiet to unsettled global geomagnetic conditions may be 
expected for the next two UT days (20 to 21 January) and quiet 
global geomagnetic conditions on UT day 22 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT day 19 January with some periods of minor 
depressions as well as periods of minor enhancements. Sporadic-E 
occurrences were also observed over some stations. Nearly similar 
levels of ionospheric support is expected for the next three 
UT days, 20 to 22 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jan   -25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jan   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
21 Jan   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
22 Jan   -22    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the Australian region on UT day 19 January 
with some periods of minor depressions as well as periods of 
minor enhancements. Sporadic-E occurrences were also observed 
over some stations. Nearly similar levels of ionospheric support 
is expected in the Australian regions for the next three UT days, 
20 to 22 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    30400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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