[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 09 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 10 10:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 09 January. A
new sunspot has emerged in the NW quadrant(no number yet). Very
Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days, 10-12 January. There is a chance of increased solar activity
over the next coming days due to new development. A filament
structure located in the SW quadrant was observed lifting off
in GONG H-alpha imagery starting 08/2116UT. No CME signature
was detected in the available coronagraph imagery. During 09
January, the solar wind speed remained enhanced, between 430-530
Km/s due to high speed streams from a coronal hole. The total
IMF (Bt) varied between 3-10 nT. The north-south component of
the IMF (Bz) was mainly southward, reached a minimum of -7 nT
at 09/0501UT. The solar wind is expected to remain slightly enhanced
today, 10 January then decline on UT days 11-12 January as the
influence of the coronal hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 23332321
Cocos Island 5 22222210
Darwin 9 13332311
Townsville 11 23332322
Learmonth 10 23332321
Alice Springs 10 23332321
Gingin 12 33333321
Canberra 10 13332321
Hobart 14 23443311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
Macquarie Island 29 12664421
Casey 23 36432333
Mawson 28 45533353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1001 1202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of isolated
Active periods.
11 Jan 5 Quiet
12 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 09 January, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
to Unsettled levels in the Australian region with some isolated
Active periods at higher Latitudes. The Antarctic region observed
Quiet to Active conditions with some isolated Minor Storm periods.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled
levels today, 10 January with a chance of isolated Active periods
due to current enhancements in the solar wind. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic
conditions are expected for 11-12 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 10-12 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on 09 January. Sporadic-E
occurrences were seen over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric
support is expected for the next three UT days, 10-12 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 61100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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