[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 11 10:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 10 January. There
are two numbered regions on the visible disc, AR 2755 and AR
2756. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 11-13 January. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During 10 January,
the solar wind speed remained enhanced, varying between 450 and
550 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 4 and 8 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range +/-5 nT. During
the next UT day, 11 January, the solar wind speed is expected
to decline to about 400 km/s as the coronal hole effects wane;
then the speed is expected to return to its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11122211
Cocos Island 3 11111210
Darwin 4 21121211
Townsville 5 21222211
Learmonth 6 12122321
Alice Springs 4 21121211
Gingin 6 11122321
Canberra 5 11222211
Hobart 7 12232212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 11333211
Casey 22 44543323
Mawson 21 43433352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2232 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 6 Quiet
12 Jan 5 Quiet
13 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 10 January, geomagnetic activity was mostly
at quiet levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
mostly quiet to active conditions were observed. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels during the
next three UT days, 11-13 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 11-13 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan -28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on 10 January. Mild
depressions were observed in the Southern Australian region during
local day. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over all Australian
sites. Similar HF propagation conditions are expected for the
next three UT days, 11-13 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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