[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 08 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 9 10:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 08 January. There
are currently only small plage regions on the visible disk. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 09-11 January. The solar wind speed observed a weak
enhancement starting around 08/1100 UT due to high speed streams
from a weak coronal hole, currently around 430 Km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) varied between 2-7 nT. The north-south component of
the IMF (Bz) reached a minimum of -7 nT at 08/1349 UT and is
currently southward. The solar wind is expected to remain slightly
enhanced today, 09 January then decline on UT days 10-11 January
as the influence of the coronal hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11112212
Cocos Island 2 10102111
Darwin 4 11112212
Townsville 9 33013312
Learmonth 6 11103312
Alice Springs 3 10002212
Gingin 3 10002212
Canberra 5 01112312
Hobart 5 11112222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 01022301
Casey 17 35323323
Mawson 21 43113355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1200 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of isolated
Active periods.
10 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 08 January, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
to Unsettled levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region
observed mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions with some isolated
Minor Storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels over the next three days,
09-11 January with a chance of isolated Active periods today
09 January due to current moderate enhancements in the solar
wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 09-11 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to slightly enhanced for the Australian region
on 08 January. Mild MUFs depressions observed at Niue Island
region. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. Similar
levels of ionospheric support is expected for the next three
UT days, 09-11 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 61000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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