[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 07 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 8 10:31:23 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 07 January. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 08-10 January. During UT day 07 January,
the solar wind speed continued decreasing, currently around 380km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2-5 nT. The north-south component
of IMF, Bz,fluctuated between +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be slightly enhanced during the next three days,08-10
January due to coronal hole influences.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Cocos Island 3 22110011
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 4 12211121
Learmonth 5 22211121
Alice Springs 4 21211111
Gingin 4 21211111
Canberra 4 21211111
Hobart 5 22212211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 11101100
Casey 12 34421222
Mawson 19 33311236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 3310 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of an isolated
Active period.
09 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 07 January, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed
Quiet to Active conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels over the next three days,
08-10 January with a chance of isolated Active periods due to
expected moderate enhancements in the solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
09 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 08-10 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on 07 January. Moderate
MUFs depressions observed at Niue Island region. Sporadic-E occurrences
were seen over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support
is expected for the next three UT days, 08-10 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 490 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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