[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 06 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 7 10:31:32 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 06 January. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region visible on the solar
disc, AR2755(S35E01) but has decayed over the period. A faint
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery around 06/0100UT, unlikely
to have an earth directed component. No other Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Very
Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 07-09 January. During UT day 06 January, the solar wind
speed gradually decreased from 530 Km/s, currently around 460km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2-5 nT. The north-south component
of IMF, Bz,fluctuated mostly between +/-3 nT. The solar wind
is expected to continue decreasing today, 07 January, then become
moderately enhanced on UT days 08-09 January due to coronal hole
influences.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22110121
Cocos Island 3 21110121
Darwin 4 12110122
Townsville 6 23110222
Learmonth 4 32010121
Alice Springs 4 22010122
Gingin 4 32010121
Canberra 5 23110121
Hobart 5 23210121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 12100011
Casey 16 45421122
Mawson 23 44212264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1110 2242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of isolated
Active periods.
09 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled.
COMMENT: On UT day 06 January, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
levels in the Australian region, with some isolated Unsettled
periods. The Antarctic region observed mainly Unsettled to Active
conditions, with some isolated Storm periods. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels over
the next three days, 07-09 January with a chance of an isolated
Active period on 08 January due to expected moderate enhancements
in the solar wind.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions may be observed compared
to the monthly predicted levels over the next three UT days,
07-09 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to moderately depressed for the Australian region
on 06 January. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites.
Similar levels of ionospheric support is expected for the next
three UT days, 07-09 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 84400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list