[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 05 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 6 10:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 05 January. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region, AR2755, visible on
the solar disc. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 06-08 January. During UT day 05 January,
the solar wind speed started the UT day around 340 km/s, then
began to gradually increase, currently around 550 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) was initially steady around 8-9 nT, then began to increase
after 05/0700 UT to fluctuate mainly between 4-14 nT, reaching
a maximum of 14.6 nT at 05/1743 UT. The north-south component
of IMF, Bz, started the UT day at low levels, then increased
after 05/0500 UT to vary between -15 to 12 nT, reaching a minimum
of -14.4 nT at 04/1745 UT. The solar wind is expected to remain
at moderate to strong levels on UT days 06-08 January due to
coronal hole influences.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 11213332
Cocos Island 7 01212332
Darwin 7 00213332
Townsville 8 11213332
Learmonth 10 11223342
Alice Springs 8 11213332
Gingin 9 11112343
Canberra 6 01212232
Hobart 7 11213232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 00113231
Casey 23 34543343
Mawson 21 34323354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1000 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled, chance of isolated Active
periods
07 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled, chance of isolated Active
periods
08 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled, chance of isolated Active
periods
COMMENT: On UT day 05 January, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
to Unsettled levels in the Australian region, with isolated Active
periods. The Antarctic region observed mainly Unsettled to Active
conditions, with some isolated Minor Storm periods. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels with
a chance of isolated Active periods on 06-08 January due to moderate
enhancements in the solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions may be observed compared
to the monthly predicted levels over the next three UT days,
06-08 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
07 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
08 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values in the Australian region on UT day 05 January.
Minor depressions were observed during the local night in the
Cocos Island region, and during the local day and night in the
Southern Australian region. The Antarctic region observed Minor
MUF depressions during the UT day. Sporadic-E occurrences were
seen over some Australian ionosonde sites. In the Australian
region, MUFs are expected to remain near predicted monthly values
with the possibility of Minor to Moderate depressions for the
next three UT days, 06-08 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 52900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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