[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 04 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 5 10:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 04 January. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region, AR2755, visible on
the solar disc and no active regions are expected to rotate onto
the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available coronagraph imagery. Very Low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three UT days, 05-07 January. During
UT day 04 January, the solar wind speed started the day varying
between 380-420 km/s, then began to gradually decrease after
04/1500 UT, currently around 340 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was
initially varying between 1-6 nT, then began to increase after
04/0900 UT and is currently steady around 8 nT. The north-south
component of IMF, Bz, varied between +/-5 nT and had some extended
southward periods. The solar wind is expected to remain at light
levels on UT day 05 January, then it may become moderately enhanced
on UT days 06-07 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 11121232
Cocos Island 5 21111231
Darwin 4 10111132
Townsville 5 11121231
Learmonth 5 20121231
Alice Springs 5 10111232
Gingin 6 21121232
Canberra 5 10120232
Hobart 5 11121231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 10033221
Casey 14 43422232
Mawson 16 43212443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1122 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 6 Quiet, with a chance of Unsettled periods
06 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 04 January, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
to Unsettled levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region
observed Quiet to Active conditions. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at mainly Quiet levels with a chance of Unsettled
periods on 05 January, then it may increase to Quiet to Unsettled
levels on 06-07 January due to possible moderate enhancements
in the solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions may be observed compared
to the monthly predicted levels over the next three UT days,
05-07 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan -23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
06 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
07 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values in the Australian region on UT day 04 January.
Minor depressions were observed during the local night in the
Niue Island region, and during the local day and night in the
Southern Australian region. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen
over some Australian ionosonde sites. In the Australian region,
MUFs are expected to remain near predicted monthly values with
the possibility of Minor to Moderate depressions for the next
three UT days, 05-07 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 63700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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