[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 04 Jan 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 5 10:31:30 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jan             06 Jan             07 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 04 January. There 
is currently one numbered sunspot region, AR2755, visible on 
the solar disc and no active regions are expected to rotate onto 
the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the 
available coronagraph imagery. Very Low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next three UT days, 05-07 January. During 
UT day 04 January, the solar wind speed started the day varying 
between 380-420 km/s, then began to gradually decrease after 
04/1500 UT, currently around 340 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was 
initially varying between 1-6 nT, then began to increase after 
04/0900 UT and is currently steady around 8 nT. The north-south 
component of IMF, Bz, varied between +/-5 nT and had some extended 
southward periods. The solar wind is expected to remain at light 
levels on UT day 05 January, then it may become moderately enhanced 
on UT days 06-07 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11121232
      Cocos Island         5   21111231
      Darwin               4   10111132
      Townsville           5   11121231
      Learmonth            5   20121231
      Alice Springs        5   10111232
      Gingin               6   21121232
      Canberra             5   10120232
      Hobart               5   11121231    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     6   10033221
      Casey               14   43422232
      Mawson              16   43212443

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1122 0002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jan     6    Quiet, with a chance of Unsettled periods
06 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 04 January, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet 
to Unsettled levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region 
observed Quiet to Active conditions. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be at mainly Quiet levels with a chance of Unsettled 
periods on 05 January, then it may increase to Quiet to Unsettled 
levels on 06-07 January due to possible moderate enhancements 
in the solar wind.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions may be observed compared 
to the monthly predicted levels over the next three UT days, 
05-07 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jan   -23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
06 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
07 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values in the Australian region on UT day 04 January. 
Minor depressions were observed during the local night in the 
Niue Island region, and during the local day and night in the 
Southern Australian region. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen 
over some Australian ionosonde sites. In the Australian region, 
MUFs are expected to remain near predicted monthly values with 
the possibility of Minor to Moderate depressions for the next 
three UT days, 05-07 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    63700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list