[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 January 20 issued 2337 UT on 03 Jan 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 4 10:37:00 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 03 January. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region, AR2755, visible on
the solar disc and no active regions are expected to rotate onto
the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available coronagraph imagery. Very low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three UT days, 04-06 January. During
UT day 03 January, the solar wind speed gradually increased,
reaching a maximum of 420 km/s at 03/2124 UT. The total IMF (Bt)
reached a maximum around 10 nT at 03/0650 UT and is currently
varying between 2-8 nT. The north-south component of IMF, Bz,
reached a minimum of -7.8 nT at 03/0649 UT and is currently varying
between +/-7 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain at light
to moderate levels on UT days 04-05 January, then it may become
moderately enhanced on UT day 06 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 12321112
Cocos Island 4 12221111
Darwin 6 12321112
Townsville 6 12321122
Learmonth 7 12331122
Alice Springs 6 12321112
Gingin 6 12321112
Canberra 5 02321112
Hobart 7 12331112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 01241001
Casey 21 35542223
Mawson 11 22323224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 6 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jan 4 Quiet
06 Jan 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 03 January, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
to Unsettled levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region
observed Quiet to Active conditions, with an isolated Minor Storm
period observed at Casey. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on 04 January, returning to
Quiet levels on 05 January. Geomagnetic activity may increase
to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 06 January due to possible moderate
enhancements in the solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions may be observed compared
to the monthly predicted levels over the next three UT days,
04-06 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan -21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
05 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
06 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values in the Australian region on UT day 03 January.
Minor to Moderate depressions were observed during the local
night in the Cocos Island and Niue Island regions. Sporadic-E
occurrences were seen over some Australian ionosonde sites. In
the Australian region, MUFs are expected to remain near predicted
monthly values with the possibility of Minor to Moderate depressions
for the next three UT days, 04-06 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 36700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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