[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 02 Jan 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 3 10:31:22 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jan             04 Jan             05 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 02 January. There 
are currently no sunspots visible from the earth side. No earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Very 
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 03-05 January. During UT day 02 January, the solar wind 
speed first increased from 290 to 380 km/s and then decreased 
to around 350 km/s by 2300 UT. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly 
between 3 nT and 6 nT and the north-south component of IMF, Bz, 
varied in the range +4/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain mostly near its background levels for the next three 
UT days, 03-05 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11110221
      Cocos Island         2   01110210
      Darwin               3   10110212
      Townsville           3   11110121
      Learmonth            4   11110222
      Alice Springs        3   01110212
      Gingin               2   10110211
      Canberra             2   00110121
      Hobart               3   11110221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000010
      Casey                9   23331222
      Mawson               5   11111213

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jan     4    Quiet
04 Jan     4    Quiet
05 Jan     4    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 02 January, geomagnetic activity was at quiet 
levels in the Australian regions and quiet to unsettled levels 
in the Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT days, 03-05 
January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
05 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with some periods of moderate depressions in some 
low latitude regions on UT day 02 January. Some periods of minor 
to significant enhancements were also observed. MUFs may be expected 
to stay near predicted monthly values with the possibility of 
minor to mild depressions for the next three UT days, 03-05 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jan   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jan   -18    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
04 Jan   -18    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
05 Jan   -18    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with some periods of moderate depressions in the 
Australian region on UT day 02 January. Some periods of minor 
to significant enhancements were also observed in the Northern 
Australian regions. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some 
Australian ionosonde sites. MUFs may be expected to stay near 
predicted monthly values with the possibility of minor to mild 
depressions for the next three UT days, 03-05 January in the 
Australian regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    39900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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