[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 01 Jan 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 2 10:31:21 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jan             03 Jan             04 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 01 January. There 
are currently no sunspots visible from the earth side. No earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Very 
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 02-04 January. During UT day 01 January, the solar wind 
speed first increased from 290 to 350 km/s and then decreased 
to 300 km/s around 2300 UT. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly 
between 2 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component of IMF, Bz, 
varied in the range +3/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain mostly near its background levels for the next three 
UT days, 02-04 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11121100
      Cocos Island         2   11111100
      Darwin               3   21111101
      Townsville           4   11122210
      Learmonth            3   20121210
      Alice Springs        2   11121100
      Gingin               4   22121210
      Canberra             2   10121100
      Hobart               2   10121100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   10011000
      Casey               10   33332221
      Mawson               9   31222233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1110 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jan     4    Quiet
03 Jan     4    Quiet
04 Jan     4    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 01 January, geomagnetic activity was at quiet 
levels in the Australian regions and quiet to unsettled levels 
in the Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT days, 02-04 
January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
03 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly from near 
predicted monthly values to moderated depressed level on UT day 
01 January. Nearly similar MUF conditions may be expected for 
the next three UT days, 02-04 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jan   -17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
03 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
04 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly from near 
predicted monthly values to moderated depressed levels for the 
Australian region on UT day 01 January. Sporadic-E occurrences 
were seen over most Australian ionosonde sites. Nearly similar 
MUF conditions may be expected for the next three UT days, 02-04 
January in the Australian regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 301 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    25800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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