[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 31 Dec 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 1 10:31:29 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 31 December.
There are currently no sunspots visible from the earth side.
No earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 01-03 January. During UT day 31 December,
the solar wind speed was at its background levels, varying in
the range 290-315 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between
3 nT and 7 nT and the north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied
between +6/-4 nT. Bz stayed predominantly southwards after around
0200 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly near
its background levels for the next three UT days, 01-03 January
with the possibility of slight rises on 01 January due to the
effects of a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22111121
Cocos Island 2 12111010
Darwin 3 22101111
Townsville 5 23111121
Learmonth 4 22111021
Alice Springs 4 22111021
Gingin 3 22011021
Canberra 2 12001111
Hobart 3 12111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
Casey 12 44321221
Mawson 7 23111123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
02 Jan 4 Quiet
03 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 31 December, geomagnetic activity was at quiet
levels in the Australian regions and quiet to unsettled with
isolated active periods in the Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next
three UT days, 01-03 January with the possibility of isolated
unsettled periods on UT day 01 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly from near
predicted monthly to moderated depressed level on UT day 31 December.
Nearly similar MUF conditions may be expected for the next three
UT days, 01-03 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Jan -22 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
03 Jan -22 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly from near
predicted monthly to moderated depressed levels for the Australian
region on UT day 31 December. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen
over most Australian ionosonde sites. Nearly similar MUF conditions
may be expected for the next three UT days, 01-03 January in
the Australian regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 295 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 18700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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