[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 February 20 issued 2336 UT on 26 Feb 2020

Thu Feb 27 10:36:29 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 29 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Feb             28 Feb             29 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day, 26 February. 
There are currently no active regions on the visible disc and 
no regions are expected to return. A filament located at ~N63W62 
was observed to lift off at 0143 UT in GONG H-alpha images. No 
Earth-bound CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. 
The solar wind speed ranged between 330 to 360 km/s, total IMF 
peaked at 7 nT, while the IMF north-south component ranged between 
+5/-5 nT. The IMF direction was variable while temperature and 
density showed no disturbances. Very Low levels of solar activity 
are forecast for the next three days, 27-29 February. The wind 
speed and IMF may become mildly elevated on 28 February due to 
the effects of patchy coronal holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11101121
      Cocos Island         2   11101020
      Darwin               3   11211111
      Townsville           3   11101121
      Learmonth            3   21101121
      Alice Springs        2   11101110
      Gingin               2   11100021
      Canberra             1   11101010
      Hobart               3   12201111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   01100000
      Casey                8   23411021
      Mawson              16   32201155

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1100 1001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed in the Australian region on 
UT day, 26 February. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions at 
high southern hemisphere latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, 27-29 February.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
28 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 26 February 
were mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed. 
Similar conditions are expected for 27-29 February.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Feb   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Feb   -15    Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb   -15    Near predicted monthly values
29 Feb   -15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 26 February 
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Spread F observed 
at mid-latitude stations except Hobart in the hours prior to 
dawn. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
to 15% depressed on 27-29 February. Night spread F possible over 
the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 349 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    51200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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