[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 February 20 issued 2330 UT on 27 Feb 2020

Fri Feb 28 10:30:38 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Feb             29 Feb             01 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day, 27 February. 
There are currently no active regions on the visible disc. Two 
active regions may rotate onto the disc in the next day. A small 
ejection was observed on the west limb at 0912 UT in LASCO C2 
images. The ejection was not observed in STEREO A images and 
so is unlikely to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed ranged 
between 330 to 380 km/s, total IMF peaked at 4 nT, while the 
IMF north-south component ranged between +3/-3 nT. The IMF direction 
was variable while temperature and density showed no disturbances. 
Very Low levels of solar activity are forecast for the next three 
days, 28 February to 1 March. The wind speed and IMF may become 
mildly elevated late on 28 February due to the effects of a small 
coronal hole. The effects of another coronal hole may be evident 
late on 1 March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   10110111
      Cocos Island         1   11100110
      Darwin               3   20111112
      Townsville           3   20111111
      Learmonth            2   20101110
      Alice Springs        1   10100101
      Gingin               1   10110110
      Canberra             1   10110001
      Hobart               1   10110101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     1   10020000
      Casey                8   33321111
      Mawson              17   52222244

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0000 1022     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Feb     7    Quiet
29 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed in the Australian region on 
UT day, 27 February. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions at 
high southern hemisphere latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly quiet on 28 February. There may be a weak increase 
in activity late on 28th or early 29th and another increase in 
activity late on 1 March, both due to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 27 February 
were mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed. 
Depressions mostly observed at low and high latitudes. Similar 
conditions are expected 28 February to 1 March.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Feb    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
29 Feb   -15    Near predicted monthly values
01 Mar   -15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 27 February 
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed 
at Niue 08-13 UT and Canberra 17-19 UT. Night spread F at Hobart 
and some pre-dawn spread F at Brisbane, Norfolk Is. and Sydney. 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
on 28 February-1 March. Night spread F possible over the next 
three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    39300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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