[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 25 Feb 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 26 10:31:24 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day, 25 February.
There are currently no active regions on the visible disc and
no regions are expected to return. Very Low levels of solar activity
are forecast for the next three days, 26-28 February. No Earth-bound
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The
solar wind speed declined from 423 km/s to ~350 km/s. The total
IMF peaked at 4.5 nT while the IMF north-south component ranged
between +1 nT and -3 nT. The wind speed and IMF may become mildly
elevated on 26 February due to the effects of patchy coronal
holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 10001001
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 10001001
Townsville 1 10002001
Learmonth 1 20001001
Alice Springs 1 20001001
Gingin 1 10001001
Canberra 0 10001000
Hobart 1 10002000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 3 22212000
Mawson 9 42211004
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1100 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Feb 9 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 25 February were Quiet
in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled on 26 and 27 February.
There is a slight chance of an isolated Active period on 26 February,
due to coronal hole effects. Quiet conditions are expected on
28 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 25 February
were mostly near predicted monthly values to moderately depressed.
Similar conditions are expected for 26 to 28 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Feb -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 25 February
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed
at Niue 04-08 UT and Perth 06-08 UT. Night time spread F observed
at mid-latitude stations. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values in the Australian region on 26 to 28
February. Possible depressions to 15% on 26 February. Afternoon/evening
sporadic E and night spread F are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 84100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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