[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 February 20 issued 2334 UT on 19 Feb 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 20 10:34:06 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day, 19 February.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three days,
20-22 February. No major ejection was observed in STEREO A images
relating to the filament eruption at 18 Feb/0958 UT. The solar
wind speed on 19 February increased to peak at 507 km/s at ~0900
UT. Wind speed has declined to ~420 km/s. The maximum total IMF
(Bt) was 11.1 nT at ~0330 UT; it then declined and stabilised
at less than 5 nT. The north/south component (Bz) was variable
in the first part of the reporting period with a maximum southward
deflection to -9.9 nT at ~0300 UT. Solar wind speed and magnetic
field are expected to return to undisturbed levels on 20 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 23242211
Cocos Island 5 22231110
Darwin 8 23232211
Townsville 10 23342211
Learmonth 9 23332211
Alice Springs 8 23232211
Gingin 10 23242221
Canberra 7 12242210
Hobart 10 13342211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Feb :
Macquarie Island 29 14474111
Casey 21 54533222
Mawson 27 36433235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 0342 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 13 Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated Active
periods
21 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled with one period of active
conditions 09-12 UT observed. Quiet to minor storm levels observed
in high southern hemisphere region. The global geomagnetic field
is expected to be quiet to active on 20 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Possible degraded propagation conditions on UT day 20
February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb -31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb -16 Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions
to 20% possible
21 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 19 February
and is current for 19-20 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
for UT day 19 February were near predicted monthly to 20% depressed.
Some deeper depressions observed at lower latitudes. Spread F
observed at Darwin and Hobart during night. Sporadic E observed
during day and evening at Brisbane, Cocos Is., Norfolk Is., Learmonth
and Perth. MUFs are likely to be near predicted monthly values.
Some depressions to 20% possible. Night spread F and day and
evening sporadic E are possible on 20 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 46200 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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