[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 February 20 issued 2340 UT on 18 Feb 2020

Wed Feb 19 10:40:46 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Feb             20 Feb             21 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day, 18 February. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three days, 
19-21 February. A filament eruption was observed in SDO aia-304 
images at 0958 UT from S40, W65. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind 
speed on 18 February ranged between 350 km/s and 417 km/s. The 
total IMF (Bt) increased to peak at 12.7 nT around 1400 UT. The 
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) maintained a southward 
direction from about 0200 UT to 1730 UT with peak southward magnitude 
of 12.7 nT around 1400 UT. Solar wind density was slightly enhanced. 
Solar wind speed is expected to be mildly elevated on 19 February 
due to a coronal hole high speed stream. The field is likely 
to be mildly disturbed over the forecast period.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   12223333
      Cocos Island         7   11113232
      Darwin              10   12233332
      Townsville          10   12223333
      Learmonth           10   12223333
      Alice Springs        9   02223332
      Gingin              13   12224343
      Canberra            11   02223343
      Hobart              14   02234343    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    37   02456652
      Casey               13   34323232
      Mawson              28   34634442

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb : 
      Darwin               9   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            5   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   1011 1143     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Feb    18    Quiet to Active
20 Feb    13    Quiet to Active
21 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed with some 
active periods at higher Australian region latitudes in latter 
half of day. Quiet to minor storm levels observed at high latitudes. 
A weak (7 nT) impulse was observed on 18 February at 1347 UT 
in SWS magnetometer data. Quiet to active levels are forecast 
for 19 to 20 February due to coronal hole effects. Minor storm 
levels possible at high latitudes on 19 February.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor
20 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Degraded propagation conditions expected on UT days 
19 and 20 February. Conditions likely to improve on 21 February.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Feb    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 18 February 
were mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. 
Enhancements in MUFs were observed during nighttime in lower 
latitudes. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected 
for the next three days, 19-21 February. Degraded conditions 
are possible during night time.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 335 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    34700 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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