[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 February 20 issued 2330 UT on 17 Feb 2020

Tue Feb 18 10:30:50 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Feb             19 Feb             20 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day, 17 February. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three days, 
18-20 February. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 17 February, the solar wind speed 
ranged between 320 km/s and 374 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged 
between 1-7 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
varied mainly between +3/-7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to be mostly at background levels on 18 February with mild increase 
on 19 February due to a coronal hole high speed stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11111222
      Cocos Island         4   11111122
      Darwin               4   11111222
      Townsville           4   11111222
      Learmonth            6   21111232
      Alice Springs        4   22001222
      Gingin               5   21102132
      Canberra             4   11102122
      Hobart               4   11102122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     2   00001112
      Casey               11   33322232
      Mawson              23   42222265

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb : 
      Darwin              20   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   2001 0111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 17 February were quiet 
in the Australian region with Antarctic regions experiencing 
mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for 18 to 20 February 
under the influence of a coronal hole expected late 18 or on 
19 February.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 18-20 February.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Feb    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 17 February 
were mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. 
Enhancements in MUFs were observed during nighttime in lower 
latitudes. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected 
for the next three days, 18-20 February.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 338 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    37300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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